A survey of present business economists undoubtedly would uncover some incumbent practitioners already close to qualifying in the "tomorrow business economist" class. The more the better for all concerned.
For younger men and women contemplating a business economist career, the field is attractive but demanding. Fundamentals can be learned through formal education, but the longstanding gap between most academic training and practical experience requires determination and a strong desire to get deeply involved in the policy-decision process. Until a business economist has accepted responsibility and accountability for a decision involving human beings and real dollars, education is incomplete. The greatest satisfaction arises in coming aboard the profession at a point when opportunities abound to help shape the future. Now seems to be such a time.
JOB SHIFTS HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIAL
The NABE 1994 Salary Characteristics report confirms many of the major changes taking place among business economists' employment. While coverage of the profession is not complete, it is certainly adequate to document a considerable upheaval in numbers and distribution of jobs.
The decline in salary-reporting members is reflective of corporate downsizing and work content shifts: from a 1982 peak (1644) to 1994 (970). Employment opportunities across industry have changed markedly: Manufacturing provided the most jobs from 1974 to 1986; banking, 1988-89; and consulting/business services, 1992-94. Many of the new consultants have set up shop following termination elsewhere. Substantial increases have occurred outside the field of business: government and academic economists now comprise more than 25 percent of all business economists reporting salaries.
EXPECTED CHALLENGES AND DEVELOPMENTS
I visualize -- with many trends already underway -- that the business economists of tomorrow will become more:
1. multidisciplinary;
2. globalized, multicultural, multilingual, and cross sectoral;
3. helpful in evaluating corporate economic and financial performance;
4. accepted as a direct contributor to profits;
5. technologically sophisticated and investigative;
6. involved in improved training and development of new entrants into the profession;
7. competitively organized;
8. a source of executive talent for increased leadership responsibilities;
9. longer range focused and visionary; and
10. private and public policy-decision oriented.
If I am correct to any substantial degree, the future is bright. If I am wrong, the profession could face loss of much of its present identity.
Multi-Disciplinary
Long ago I came to realize that my forecasting batting average was greatly improved if I asked not only is my outlook economically logical and sound, but also -- politically possible? socially desirable? technologically feasible? psychologically probable? among other tests. It will pay us well to keep broadening our analyses to include the influence of other disciplines, in keeping with the changing times ahead. The purist economist will have increasing difficulty getting and keeping the interest of decision makers.
Globalized, Multicultural, Multilingual, and Cross Sectoral
International programming has become increasingly important on the job and in meetings. However, too many discussions are separated from -- or are an appendage to -- the domestic economy. What lies ahead is far more globalization, necessitating greater worldwide focus, or at least on the major economic regions and blocs. National political boundaries are becoming less significant as economic globalization gathers scope and speed. We must soon learn to think globally first.
The prolonged dominance of the business economist profession by Western industrial cultural, English-speaking men and women can only subside. Traditional professionals will be at a progressive disadvantage compared with others who have natural or acquired multicultural and multilingual competence and understanding. Few important decisions will be safely made without serious consideration of international influences and their consequences.
The business economist profession is rapidly outgrowing its traditional industrial and sectoral categories, e.g., steel, textiles, manufacturing, and medical care. Industry lines are less distinct and undergoing continual reclassification. What formerly was considered manufacturing is often partially fragmented into services. In turn, services have become a huge, almost meaningless sector and a dumping ground for a complex, poorly measured, array of new and specialized industries.
These changes make comparability more difficult or at times impossible. More important, globalization and cross-sectoral expansion require fresh macro comprehension and forecasting techniques. Links between micro and macro relationships simultaneously become more important and less easily achieved.
Evaluation of Economic and Financial Performance
Our profession can play a major new role in helping management judge performance. As every experienced business economist knows, corporate executives routinely take full credit for, and ignore the positive assistance of, the economy to profits, but also routinely blame the economy and economists heavily for most shortcomings. The time has come for business economists individually and collectively to challenge this double standard. Needed is an objective procedure to measure on an ongoing basis the separate impact of changes in the economy on corporate sales and profits. This project may not be popular but would add considerable credibility and status to the profession.
Direct Contributor to Profits
The diminished role of the business economist function in many corporations during the past decade (discussed in Hoadley: Looking Behind the Crystal Ball, 1988) has forced professionals to become very cost conscious. More of the same is to be expected. Many executives at present do not give business economics a very high budget priority. The profession faces an urgent continuing task to convince public and private leaders that the business economist can and does make a tangible contribution to policy and profits.
For younger men and women contemplating a business economist career, the field is attractive but demanding. Fundamentals can be learned through formal education, but the longstanding gap between most academic training and practical experience requires determination and a strong desire to get deeply involved in the policy-decision process. Until a business economist has accepted responsibility and accountability for a decision involving human beings and real dollars, education is incomplete. The greatest satisfaction arises in coming aboard the profession at a point when opportunities abound to help shape the future. Now seems to be such a time.
JOB SHIFTS HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIAL
The NABE 1994 Salary Characteristics report confirms many of the major changes taking place among business economists' employment. While coverage of the profession is not complete, it is certainly adequate to document a considerable upheaval in numbers and distribution of jobs.
The decline in salary-reporting members is reflective of corporate downsizing and work content shifts: from a 1982 peak (1644) to 1994 (970). Employment opportunities across industry have changed markedly: Manufacturing provided the most jobs from 1974 to 1986; banking, 1988-89; and consulting/business services, 1992-94. Many of the new consultants have set up shop following termination elsewhere. Substantial increases have occurred outside the field of business: government and academic economists now comprise more than 25 percent of all business economists reporting salaries.
EXPECTED CHALLENGES AND DEVELOPMENTS
I visualize -- with many trends already underway -- that the business economists of tomorrow will become more:
1. multidisciplinary;
2. globalized, multicultural, multilingual, and cross sectoral;
3. helpful in evaluating corporate economic and financial performance;
4. accepted as a direct contributor to profits;
5. technologically sophisticated and investigative;
6. involved in improved training and development of new entrants into the profession;
7. competitively organized;
8. a source of executive talent for increased leadership responsibilities;
9. longer range focused and visionary; and
10. private and public policy-decision oriented.
If I am correct to any substantial degree, the future is bright. If I am wrong, the profession could face loss of much of its present identity.
Multi-Disciplinary
Long ago I came to realize that my forecasting batting average was greatly improved if I asked not only is my outlook economically logical and sound, but also -- politically possible? socially desirable? technologically feasible? psychologically probable? among other tests. It will pay us well to keep broadening our analyses to include the influence of other disciplines, in keeping with the changing times ahead. The purist economist will have increasing difficulty getting and keeping the interest of decision makers.
Globalized, Multicultural, Multilingual, and Cross Sectoral
International programming has become increasingly important on the job and in meetings. However, too many discussions are separated from -- or are an appendage to -- the domestic economy. What lies ahead is far more globalization, necessitating greater worldwide focus, or at least on the major economic regions and blocs. National political boundaries are becoming less significant as economic globalization gathers scope and speed. We must soon learn to think globally first.
The prolonged dominance of the business economist profession by Western industrial cultural, English-speaking men and women can only subside. Traditional professionals will be at a progressive disadvantage compared with others who have natural or acquired multicultural and multilingual competence and understanding. Few important decisions will be safely made without serious consideration of international influences and their consequences.
The business economist profession is rapidly outgrowing its traditional industrial and sectoral categories, e.g., steel, textiles, manufacturing, and medical care. Industry lines are less distinct and undergoing continual reclassification. What formerly was considered manufacturing is often partially fragmented into services. In turn, services have become a huge, almost meaningless sector and a dumping ground for a complex, poorly measured, array of new and specialized industries.
These changes make comparability more difficult or at times impossible. More important, globalization and cross-sectoral expansion require fresh macro comprehension and forecasting techniques. Links between micro and macro relationships simultaneously become more important and less easily achieved.
Evaluation of Economic and Financial Performance
Our profession can play a major new role in helping management judge performance. As every experienced business economist knows, corporate executives routinely take full credit for, and ignore the positive assistance of, the economy to profits, but also routinely blame the economy and economists heavily for most shortcomings. The time has come for business economists individually and collectively to challenge this double standard. Needed is an objective procedure to measure on an ongoing basis the separate impact of changes in the economy on corporate sales and profits. This project may not be popular but would add considerable credibility and status to the profession.
Direct Contributor to Profits
The diminished role of the business economist function in many corporations during the past decade (discussed in Hoadley: Looking Behind the Crystal Ball, 1988) has forced professionals to become very cost conscious. More of the same is to be expected. Many executives at present do not give business economics a very high budget priority. The profession faces an urgent continuing task to convince public and private leaders that the business economist can and does make a tangible contribution to policy and profits.
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